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Pandemics and Human Behavior

Our Pandemics And Human Behavior: Implications On The Travel Industry And Aerospace Sector report is one in a series of reports on how human behavior during crisis events will shift industries. It provides a focused look at US consumer behavior, both broadly during a crisis such as COVID-19, as well as specifically for the travel industry – arguably the hardest hit during today’s crisis.

To complete this analysis, we examined the following

  • Historic consumer reactions to mass-crisis events
    • Public Health Related (i.e. 1918 Spanish Flu Epidemic)
    • Economic Downturns (i.e. 2008 Great Recession)
    • Travel-Specific Events (i.e. September 11thAttacks)
  • Modern parallels to historic behavior we have seen
  • Interplays between different types of travel, including:
    • Substituting travel modes
    • Interdependencies between travel types
    • Business vs leisure vs hybrid travel
  • Impact of minor / outlier events on travel behavior

To build a comprehensive perspective, we consulted the following sources

  • Federal Reserve and Dept of Treasury Data
    • FAA and TSA Passenger Yield Data
    • Pulse surveys on COVID-19 impacts on expected consumer spending
    • Trade Association Data (i.e. National Hoteliers Association)
    • IATA Data Portal on RPKs, Yield, and Capacity
    • ‘Normal’ Time Economic Data (i.e. average room rates, tickets, vehicle
      rental prices)
    • WHO and IMF Projections on COVID-19 and economic impacts
    • Financial Projections from Banks and Advisory Firms

Aforementioned data was used to build proprietary analysis and projections for post-COVID realities

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